Transforming Wellington’s train tracks

Trains are my special interest. Fun, efficient, what's not to love?

Trains make every other transportation method better. Roads clear when trains are near. If you want better traffic, add a train, not a lane.

Best of all, trains do this without costing the earth. Trains cut your travel pollution by 70% and save you money on parking costs.

Wellington is an outlier alongside Auckland for having train travel. Nearly every other region in Aotearoa watched and raged as their once glorious regular rail services died. But not us. We’re special.

That being said, train travel numbers have been stagnant for a while. Disruptions and neglect are leading to fewer train travellers.

The time has come to grow our system. A low pollution future depends on it.

Thankfully, the Regional Council and Waka Kotahi have a great plan to improve the rail system. Some of it is even funded!

With the right political decisions, rail could be far better. So, what improvements are actually arriving at a station near you, what could our better rail future look like, and what's holding this future back?

Fifteen minutes... funded!

After nearly two decades of waiting, Wellington is on the brink of being able to run trains every 15 minutes at peak times.

A 15 minute timetable is a huge improvement on train services compared to now. It's one step closer to a future where you don't have to plan your life around the train, one is near your stop no matter your schedule.

I've been assured by Regional Council staff that a 15 minute timetable is within reach. Thank Christ, because the Regional Council has been trying to make this happen for 17 years.

That's right. The earliest document I could find discussing a 15 minute timetable was in 2008. It was originally promised to be delivered by 2012.

Why has it taken so long? Even though John Key's National government agreed with improving train travel in Wellington, they didn't fund what was needed for extra capacity. Instead, they spent billions more on roads than rail.

Ardern's government spent far more on public transport than John Key's did. They funded things like new trains and the replacement of our century old switchbox controlling Wellington station's tracks. All great things. At the same time, while Ardern cared deeply about climate change, her government spent far more on roads than anything else.

Alongside Labour's funding, Wellington needed more power to run more electric trains. To my great surprise, under Simeon Brown, Wellington got what it needed to add extra power to the tracks.

Bit by bit, with 17 years of delays, a 15 minute timetable is due in 2030.

Just think about what would happen if Governments spent as much money on rail as they already spend on roads.

The unfunded future

Let me introduce you to what a day in our future rail system would be like, if the Government funds it. This plan is designed to get lots of people happily ditching the car for train travel.

Wherever you are in the Wellington region, a train would never be far away. Did you and your kids miss the last train to school? Don't stress! In the future, the trains run every six minutes.

In this plan, KiwiRail will fix all the old tracks. Trains run faster, meaning teachers travelling from Tawa or retirees from Redwood will speed across town.

Freight no longer competes with people on the lines. Every line would have at least two tracks, meaning timber doesn't stop travellers like it currently does north of Paekākāriki. It opens up the chance for more frequent trips out to Ōtaki, Levin, and Palmerston North on new electric trains in 2030.

The risks of trains and cars crashing would be gone, too. Train lines would never criss-cross with car lanes, saving lives.

Across the network, stations get more beautiful and functional. Waterloo Station would become a hub for shops or cafes. Our stations become destinations.

Because tens of thousands of people will live within walking distance of a train station, countless families in Wellington will happily switch out the SUV and travel on rail instead. Air gets cleaner. Trains carry more people than car lanes, which frees drivers from traffic.

The future plan for our rail system is genuinely beautiful for train travellers and everyone else.

Will it happen?

Well. The plan has been endorsed by Waka Kotahi, who also stressed vigorously that there were absolutely no guarantees any of it would be funded. That choice sits with politicians.

Making better money choices

Here lies the perennial problem. Spending enough to transform rail is apparently impossible, even though politicians will boast about the untold billions they spend on maintaining inefficient roads.

All up, a transformed railway system for Wellington requires about $11 billion over 30 years.

This is tiny compared to the highway budget. Between 2024 and 2027, the Coalition Government wants to spend $12.8 billion on roads. That's 30 years of transformational, low carbon infrastructure spent in three years like it's nothing.

A lot of this funding is sunk into these projects assuming it will improve traffic. Internationally, the evidence is in. Building more lanes makes traffic worse, not better.

Freight doesn't benefit much either: it doesn't matter how shiny the highway is, trucks can't go above 90km/h. In fact, the more we build highways, the more trucks will use them, and the faster they degrade.

Lastly, big road projects are often terrible financial decisions. For example, Key funded Transmission Gully and Ardern funded the Ōtaki to Levin Expressway. These highways were found to have a negative benefit cost ratio. Simply, for every dollar invested, these projects cost the economy rather than grew it.

Transmission Gully was estimated to lose $0.37 for every dollar invested. When Ōtaki to Levin was approved, it was estimated the economy would lose $0.78 for every dollar spent on the project. That’s before its cost blowouts.

If you want economic growth, I’d recommend investing in projects that... grow the economy.

Thankfully, investing in train tracks delivers economic growth – for every dollar put into transforming Wellington's tracks, the economy would gain $0.10 to $0.50.

Better yet, every dollar spent on rail helps make roads last. Better rail leads to more freight on trains, which saves our highways from heavy trucks riddling them with potholes. Our infrastructure would last longer, be safer, work better. It is a great opportunity.

Our transport priorities need to change. Instead of pouring tens of billions into projects that make traffic worse, politicians could use proven methods to improve traffic. That looks like transforming our rail network so nurses, families, office workers, and retirees can depend on it.

The plan is there to offer Wellingtonians an excellent way to take the train. What we need now are leaders who will fund it.